Ethereum’s proof-of-work (PoW) powered by GPUs generated roughly $19 billion in revenue final yr for ETH miners. However these income streams are in peril as Ethereum is anticipated to turn into a proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain through “the Merge” improve in September.

Miners might then revolt in opposition to the brand new improve by persevering with to mine on the previous Ethereum PoW after the hard fork chain cut up. 

A survey from crypto hedge fund Galois Capital lately revealed that 33.1% of respondents consider that the Merge would create two parallel blockchains: ETH1 (PoW) and ETH2 (PoS).

Nonetheless, most respondents, or 53.7%, anticipate Ethereum’s chain to easily transition from PoW to PoS.

Is the ETH1 PoW “illogical”?

However contentious laborious forks aren’t something new. In reality, the present Ethereum chain got here to be in 2016 following a controversial laborious fork aimed toward reversing a $60 million exploit, leading to a series cut up with Ethereum and Ethereum Traditional (ETC).

That is the place the argument of Ethereum Traditional versus ETH1 begins. Since Ethereum Traditional is already a PoW chain, creating an identical chain, ETH1, is not going to have “much relevance,” based on some redditors. 

A number of different feedback from Reddit explaining why ETH1 will fail embody:

In the meantime, most respondents within the Galois Capital survey additionally consider that exchanges and initiatives (particularly Tether) will assist ETH2 over ETH1 within the occasion of a tough fork.

What does it imply for Ethereum Traditional?

After reaching a report excessive in Could 2022, the Ethereum community’s hash fee has been downtrend ever since, indicating that miners are pausing or shutting down their rigs within the weeks main as much as the Merge.

However, they is also changing into stakers on the Ethereum’s PoS chain.

Ethereum hash fee efficiency since September 2021. Supply: YCharts

The miners’ exit from the Ethereum community is seen within the current improve in GPU gross sales within the secondary market (in opposition to decrease demand), based on Tom’s Hardware GPU Pricing Index.

Nonetheless, there’s additionally an uptick within the number of social media threads that reveals the miners’ technique submit the Merge will possible be to modify to no matter PoW chain is extra worthwhile.

As of July 29, Ethereum Traditional was topping miners’ curiosity for its 116% weekly profitability, knowledge on shows

Concurrently, the worth of ETC has soared by greater than 200% in July.

ETC/USD every day worth chart. Supply: TradingView

However that doesn’t take away the truth that Ethereum Traditional is a really small challenge in comparison with Ethereum.

As of June 29, the Ethereum Traditional had over 53,000 every day lively addresses versus Ethereum’s 763,000.

Ethereum Traditional every day lively addresses. Supply:

The distinction means that ETC’s ongoing worth increase is only speculative since Ethereum Traditional stays largely underutilized as a series and with solely a handful of initiatives. Due to this fact, ETC is definitely susceptible to a “promote the information” occasion after the Merge. 

On the similar time, a possible ETH1 PoW chain may push down demand for ETC. 

ETC worth goal

On the weekly chart, ETC’s worth has reached a resistance confluence, awaiting a breakout because the euphoria surrounding the Merge grows.

Associated: Crypto mining still profitable in the long-term, expert says

The confluence contains the 0.786 Fib line (~$43) and a multi-month descending trendline. Each have traditionally capped ETC’s bullish makes an attempt prior to now, because the chart beneath illustrates.

Nonetheless, a breakout transfer will increase the token’s potential to hit $75 subsequent, because of its proximity to the 0.618 Fib line.

ETC/USD weekly worth chart. Supply: TradingView

Conversely, a pullback transfer from both the resistance confluence or the 0.618 Fib line might have ETC eye a drop towards the assist space illustrated above. It’s outlined by the purple bar, the multi-year rising trendline assist (purple), and the descending channel’s decrease trendline (inexperienced).

In different phrases, ETC dangers dropping towards the $10-$12 space by September, down 75% from at present’s worth.

The views and opinions expressed listed here are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially replicate the views of Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, it is best to conduct your personal analysis when making a choice.